domingo, 9 de setembro de 2007

Greenspan compara actual crise financeira com as de 1987 e de 1998

As turbulências que se vivem nos mercados financeiros são para o ex-presidente da Reserva Federal, Alan Greenspan, "idênticas" em muitos aspectos às vividas nas quebras bolsistas dos anos de 1987 e de 1998, noticia a Reuters.

Citado numa edição do Wall Street Journal, advertiu que, à semelhança do que já aconteceu no passado as «bolhas» dificilmente podem ser travadas com actuações sobre as taxas de juro.


Refutando a ideia de que os ciclos de crescimento e de contracção são animados pelos mesmos factores, o ex-presidente da FED salientou que, no actual cenário dos mercados, o medo (dos investidores) tem muito mais força do que a euforia. O pânico gerado pela «bolha» só desaparece quando a febre passar, sugeriu.


e Dinheirodigital

sexta-feira, 7 de setembro de 2007

Anatomy of an Emotional Trade

 Porquê utilizar 'stop losses'?

Never get excited when you deviate from your rules and it goes well, as it always compounds the problem.
Two hundred years ago, if you sat with someone and said to them, “Believe it or not, there is this ‘thing’ that can’t be seen by the naked eye that can literally wipe out an entire population, and it’s called a 'germ',” they may have locked you away. Had you informed them that these invisible creatures often caused mass death, they may have just tied you to a rope for all to see. Thankfully, today we all accept that germs are very real and something we need to be mindful of in order to remain healthy. Furthermore, we have gone another step and developed medicine to help us fight these invisible creatures as well as limit their spreading.

Today, a similar conversation could be had with a trader regarding emotions. It would go something like this. “You know, there is one thing that can’t be seen that can really kill a trade and it's called emotions. Actually, these invisible things have been known to wipe out entire portfolios.”

With some humor aside, traders today must be keenly aware of the damage that can be created when one does not hold their emotions firmly in check. One of the biggest detriments of being overly emotional is the loss of control. When emotions are running high, more often than not, you have already lost control and have moved into an area of hope.


Shortly after entering the trade, the stock showed a profit, of which I got excited about (Mistake #1: Expect gains, don’t be surprised by them). A few days later, however, the stock faltered back to its trend line, which was fine and healthy as it was higher than its previous point of support and still showing me a profit.

It also happened to be my line in the sand, or stop level. Unfortunately, the stock breached the level in the late afternoon, and rather than cut it and move on, you guessed it, I said to myself, “I’ll give it another day, surely this is just a shake out.” The next day, I came in and the stock advanced slightly confirming my suspicion and making me rather pleased (Mistake #2: Never get excited when you deviate from your rules and it goes well, as it always compounds the problem).


There is a fine line between remaining in control and becoming subject to emotions. Resolve to identify this area and stand firm in never crossing that border. But, if by chance, you lift your head and feel out of place, knowing that some way, somehow you managed to cross the border into an area you don’t belong, get out quickly. Don’t stick around to try and make it a vacation.


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