quinta-feira, 18 de agosto de 2011

Marc Faber prepara-se para a morte do dólar hiperinflação, e distúrbios civis

In “Money Talks – MarketWatch”:

“Financial conditions are today worse than they were prior to the crisis in 2008,” he said in a telephone interview earlier this week from Thailand. “The fiscal deficits have exploded and the political system [in both the U.S. and Europe] has become completely dysfunctional.”

“The way I look at it,” Faber said, “I am ultra-bearish about everything geopolitically. In an environment of money printing, we have to ask ourselves, how do we protect our wealth? ... Where do we allocate the money?

Good question, but in fact a fairly straightforward one if, like Faber, you believe that Federal Reserve policy is stoking speculation over savings and debasing the U.S. dollar, hyperinflation is a real possibility, the stock market’s recovery since 2009 has favored the rich and powerful, cash is trash, and gold and land in the countryside are the only true safe havens.

“The Federal Reserve is a very evil institution,” Faber said with characteristic bluntness, “in the sense that they punish decent people who have saved all their lives.

“These are people who don’t understand about stocks and investments,” he added, “and suddenly they are forced to speculate.”

Speculation is the opposite of investing — of which there is little of nowadays from the corporate sector, let alone government and retail stock buyers. Corporations are instead hoarding cash out of concern that slow global economic growth will slam profits.

Such a miserly attitude can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Faber noted that corporate earnings will likely disappoint stockholders across the board, including commodity shares, with the exception of traditional defensive sectors such as health care, consumer staples and utilities.

Moreover, one of the main ways corporations are spending money — on mergers and acquisitions rather than on hiring and equipment — is ultimately inflationary, Faber said.

“The corporate sector is not spending much money on capital investments and new investments — that’s why they have this huge hoard of cash,” Faber said. “There will be many more takeovers and industry consolidation in the years ahead. It destroys jobs, but this is what will happen. As industries consolidate, they get more pricing power, and the cost of living increases.”

Of course, Faber points out, while such dealings might not be ideal for Main Street, it can sustain Wall Street, which leads Faber to a prognosis for stocks that may surprise the doctor’s patients.

“I’m not that negative about equities,”

Faber said. “If you’re bearish about the world, you’ll probably be better off in equities than in government bonds and cash.”

Assim ele recomenda:

1. Avoid Treasurys

“It’s a suicidal investment to own 10-year or 30-year U.S. Treasurys,” Faber said.

2. Cash is trash

Given his bleak assessment of the U.S. dollar, it’s no surprise that Faber doesn’t recommend holding cash as a long-term cushion against portfolio shocks.

3. Stocks offer some safety

“I am not completely bearish about stocks,” Faber said. “If I have cash, government bonds and stocks, for the long term, I’d take stocks.”

4. Emerging markets will expand

In contrast to his dim view of U.S. and other developed markets, Faber is downright sunny about investing in emerging nations.

5. Gold is worth its weight

Gold blew through $1,800 an ounce on Tuesday, continuing its forward march as investors seek higher ground. Given his world view, Faber is convinced that the price of gold will continue rising and that any pullback is a buying opportunity.

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